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Robert Winslow

Econ 330 HW3

Posted: Sep 29th, 2025 - Modified: Sep 29th, 2025

This assignment is under construction.

Instructions

Each problem in this assignment asks you to work with data and/or answer one or more reflection questions about the data. Each chart you produce must be clearly labeled, self-contained, and easy to read. Your answers to the reflection questions should be succint and insightful. When writing your answers, imagine that you are preparing a report for your very busy, non-economist, manager.

You must submit one report (preferable in PDF format) to D2L, which contains all of your charts and your answers to the questions. Once again, your analysis and charts must be self-contained and clearly labeled.

You are allowed to work with others on this assignment, but:

  • Be sure to include attribution at the top of your submission. If someone helped you create a document, their name should be somewhere on the document.
  • Submitted work should be your own. (Charts will naturally look similar. That’s fine.)

Problems (WIP, brainstorming)

  • Plot velocity of money.

Something related to rates. Ideas from Terry:

  • Plot 10 yr rate minus 2 year rate for treasury constant maturity - relate spread to recessions
    • (short term reflects expected path of FFR, long term reflects long-run equilibrium)
  • yield curve (125,135 in Mishkin, (ch6))
    • Relate to QE? (337, 358, 569 in Mishkin (ch14,15,569))
  • bond spreads against treasuries?
  • inflation expectations: breakeven inflation rates (compare nominal vs real, have students compare calculation to published rate?) (Not sure if Mishkin discusses.)

Tightening Cycles (See Mishkin ch 25 problems for examples, or Terry’s suggestion:)

  • Plot cycle comparison: manually set dates for tightening cycle starts and plot increase from baseline.
    • Overlay time series with different start points (graph of increase from low point vs months since first rate hike)
  • do likewise for easing cycles
  • plot unemployment rate during easing cycles
    • (good observation from Terry: we’ll see FFR falling when UR is high because former is response to latter)

How tight is monetary policy (Terry’s suggestions):

  • “Many analysts look at the median long-run federal funds rate projection from the SEP as a measure of a neutral policy stance.”
  • HLW model estimates from fed - compare to SEP rates.
  • (My idea: redo Taylor rule with these rates?… ehh)