Link Search Menu Expand Document
Bibliography

Heterogeneity in the Impact of Economic Cycles and the Great Recession: Effects within and across the Income Distribution

Author’s Webpage,

BibTeX 

@article{bitler2015heterogeneity,
  title={Heterogeneity in the Impact of Economic Cycles and the Great Recession: Effects within and across the Income Distribution},
  author={Bitler, Marianne and Hoynes, Hilary},
  journal={American Economic Review},
  volume={105},
  number={5},
  pages={154--160},
  year={2015},
  publisher={American Economic Association 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203}
}

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the effects of economic cycles on low- to moderate-income families. We use variation across states and over time to estimate the effects of cycles on the distribution of income, using fine gradations of the household income-to-poverty ratio. We also explore how the effects of cycles affect the risk of falling into poverty across demographic groups, focusing on age, race/ethnicity, and family type. We conclude by testing to see whether these relationships have changed in the Great Recession. We discuss the results in light of the changes in the social safety net in recent decades.

Notes and Excerpts

Uses CPS (asec) to construct after tax and transfer income, then combines with official poverty thresholds (deNavas-Walt and Proctor 2014) to get income poverty ratio for each household.

Input variable is state unemployment rate, output variable is share of individuals in a state at some time with ATTI below 150% (or whatever) of poverty threshold. Break things down by time or age or income level or what have you.

Conclusions:

  • lower income hhs have stronger response to recession (though skimming, that seems to me like it might be a mechanical result of their specification)